Google, Yahoo, Facebook, MySpace. Those companies’ products spread over the Internet like a virus. But why hasn’t there been a runaway hit like those in the mobile software world? Why does it take so much longer to build value, and a strong customer base, in mobile companies than in certain Internet startups?

Dan Shapiro had some entertaining thoughts on this yesterday, as he spoke to the Mobile Northwest 2009 crowd in Seattle. Shapiro is the co-founder and CEO of Ontela, a Seattle-based mobile imaging startup, and he’s a veteran of RealNetworks and Microsoft. I won’t do justice to his presentation, but here’s the gist.

Hotmail was one of the first examples of viral marketing. By appending the message, “Get your free e-mail at hotmail.com” (or some such) to the bottom of each e-mail, Hotmail helped pioneer a new method of promotion that was “basically free, highly measurable, and ridiculously effective,” Shapiro said. Its number of new subscribers jumped from hundreds to tens of thousands per day.

Maybe there’s something about the viral distribution model that doesn’t fly in the mobile world, Shapiro thought. In epidemiology, he pointed out, researchers use a parameter called the basic reproduction number to gauge whether a viral outbreak will spread or die out. The corresponding number in the Internet world tells you how many people a given user will “infect,” on average: Shapiro gave some estimates for Facebook (6), Gmail (5), MySpace (4), and Twitter (1.5). He argued that Twitter hasn’t been spreading virally; it has used more conventional marketing through word of mouth and the press.

“Heterogeneity in the target population is the best protection to keep you from being infected by viruses,” he said. That means some people have different levels of resistance, different behaviors, different types of contacts, and so forth, so not everyone will get infected by, say, the latest flu bug.

And that same kind of variety that makes individuals different is exactly why mobile isn’t viral, he argued. He cited some survey stats to explain how fragmented this market really is: There are roughly 500 different types of handsets, about 30 per carrier; about two-thirds of people (65 percent) don’t have a data plan; three out of four people (75 percent) are on a different carrier from you; almost that many (70 percent) don’t have a smartphone. And despite all the attention it gets, 98 percent of mobile users don’t have an iPhone. (iPhone apps are definitely not spreading virally, Shapiro said. He also argued that Tegic’s T9 predictive texting did not spread virally; it was pushed out by carriers and handset manufacturers in a dedicated partnership.)

“We will not see the Facebook, Gmail, or Yahoo of mobile until this changes,” Shapiro said. He added that he’s not advocating one standard mobile platform; he’s just saying how it is right now.

So his advice for mobile entrepreneurs and investors was:

—Be skeptical of anyone peddling viral marketing in mobile.

—Build a business model that doesn’t require big adoption.

—Pick a market segment that’s homogeneous. (Examples: BlackBerry corporate users, Silicon Valley techies.)

—Use ubiquitous technologies like WAP (Wireless Application Protocol) and SMS texting.

—Wait… (”Things are getting better,” he said.)

Afterward, Shapiro said he thinks “Europe holds the future of the U.S.” Over there, wireless carriers have influence, but only about half of consumers get their services directly from carriers, versus about 90 percent in the U.S. “I think you’ll see the carrier role diminish,” he said, when it comes to mobile software.

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[Corrected and updated, 10/28/09, 12:40 p.m.; see page 4.] Back in 2002, it must have sounded like a good idea for Orange, a fast-growing European wireless provider known more for the simplicity of its services than for their sophistication, to open an R&D center in Boston, where it could hire a troop of brainy engineers, consultants, and startup entrepreneurs to come up with ideas for new high-tech services that would continue to fuel its growth.

In practice, though, an array of barriers meant that Orange Labs—which settled near MIT in Cambridge, MA, and became home to what one former employee calls “the most talented, most passionate group of people I’ve ever worked with”—never really fulfilled its potential. Eventually, it lost the pull it needed within Orange and its parent company, France Telecom, to keep growing. And after a seven-year run, the lab will close its doors tomorrow.

France Telecom’s decision to shutter Orange Labs Cambridge is ostensibly part of a corporate consolidation effort—there’s another Orange laboratory in South San Francisco, and in tough economic times it’s hard to argue that any European company needs two U.S. research centers.

But several former Orange Labs members tell Xconomy that the Cambridge facility’s demise was so long in the making that it could perhaps have been predicted from the start. It was rooted, these sources say, both in cultural differences between the lab’s American engineers and their British and French overseers, and in textbook organizational frictions and rivalries that prevented most Orange Labs initiatives from maturing into products that could be deployed to actual Orange customers. Just as important, the former employees say, Orange’s San Francisco lab developed far stronger political connections to the France Telecom leadership, making it obvious which of the two labs was more likely to survive any cost-cutting round.

Orange Labs' facility on Second Street in Kendall Square, Cambridge, MA

But while Orange Labs Cambridge may not have fulfilled its creators’ hopes, it will leave a lasting footprint on the Boston technology scene. Developers at the lab prototyped services such as push-to-talk, mobile photo sharing, localized search, and app-like “widgets” long before any of these technologies became standard on mobile phones. The lab provided a home, at its height, to about 60 brilliant hardware and software engineers, including many graduates of MIT and other local universities. And it acted as a springboard for entrepreneurs who have gone on to play other important roles in the mobile industry—the most prominent being Orange Labs’ founder and first director, Rich Miner, who later co-founded mobile software startup Android, helped transform the Android operating system into an industry standard before and after the company was acquired by Google, and now runs Google Ventures.

Still, there’s a sense that the lab could have accomplished much more. “If I were to summarize the ultimate legacy that the lab had for Orange and France Telecom, I would say ‘missed opportunity,’” says Iliya Rybchin, who was a program manager at Orange Lab from 2002 to 2004 and is now overseeing digital development projects at publisher McGraw-Hill. “The fact that [France Telecom] wasn’t willing or capable of tapping into that talent pool, with that amazing level of innovation and insight and passion, is frankly unfortunate, because the kinds of things that we were producing in the lab really had the potential to be transformative in the industry.”

Officials at France Telecom have not responded to Xconomy’s requests for comment on the shutdown, nor has Orange Labs CEO Frank Bowman.

The story of Orange Labs starts with Orange itself, formed in 1994 by a consortium of British and French companies. Industry insiders describe the early Orange as a scrappy, innovation-focused, startup-style company that …Next Page »

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[Updated 12:25pm, 10/20/09. See correction below] Seattle-based Azaleos is announcing today it is releasing new software and services to help companies manage Microsoft Office Communications Server, which is a software platform for instant messaging, Internet telephony, and video conferencing over the Web. It’s a strong move for Azaleos that expands its product line beyond management services for e-mail and collaborative software, and into managing “unified communications”—all forms of company communication run by a single system.

Azaleos is best known for the services it provides to help companies manage their Microsoft Exchange e-mail servers and Microsoft SharePoint collaborative networks.

Last spring, Azaleos established itself in the realm of SharePoint server management. The company also merged with North Carolina-based M3 Technology Group, doubling its size and solidifying its position in e-mail and other communications management. Azaleos now has about 125 employees, and is backed by Ignition Partners, Frontier Capital, and Second Avenue Partners.

“Anybody who follows the IT industry sees the promise of the concept of unified communications, integrating real-time and non real-time,” says Scott Gode, vice president of product management and marketing for Azaleos. “It’s important for Azaleos to get in early.”

These days, companies typically implement instant messaging first, Gode says, and then follow up with conferencing and Internet telephony for their employees. [An earlier version of this article mixed up the order of these services. We regret the error---Eds.] Azaleos provides extensive consulting to help companies deal with the complexities of running and monitoring these features using Microsoft’s Office Communications Server. (Microsoft is a leader in the space, though it competes with Cisco and others.) Azaleos breaks even on its consulting service and looks to make its profits on the management service, Gode says. This is different from big companies like Accenture or IBM, which tend to make more on consulting fees.

So who’s the target customer for Azaleos? “The sweet spot in general for our business is a 500 to 5,000-seat company,” Gode says. “They’ll assume a little more risk [in moving from telephony to IP telephony].” He adds that companies typically can save 30 to 50 percent of the cost of running communication systems by using Azaleos.

Gode says the company has also been “pushing aggressively into Europe.” In late August, Azaleos opened a new office in London that employs five people. He says the company is now selling to more companies based in Europe, such as Mediq, a Dutch pharmaceutical firm.

Lastly, I asked Gode where Azaleos is in terms of its cash flow. From his response, it sounds like the company is still in a growth and expansion mode, rather than hunkering down and getting profitable. “We’re flirting with profitability, and I mean that in a good way,” he says. “Business is good.”

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I can’t do justice to a comprehensive review of yesterday’s FiReGlobal (West Coast) conference at the Four Seasons Hotel in Seattle. Instead, I’ll just give a few of my key takeaways. The all-day event, organized by Strategic News Service, focused on how to solve some of the most pressing problems in technology, business, and society—in areas as diverse as broadband access, entrepreneurship, education, sustainability and the environment, political discourse, human health, and mobile devices.

The sweeping conference had the tagline, “Global technology driving local solutions.” Interesting, as that’s sort of the reverse of Xconomy’s mantra, which is reporting about local stories with global impact. But I think they’re two sides of the same innovation coin.

So, in “ESPN plays of the day” style, here’s my top 10 list from the conference (if only I had the video to go with it):

10. Setting up entrepreneurial zones. A panel led by Ty Carlson of Microsoft proposed denoting special “R&D zones” from Oregon to British Columbia geared toward supporting startups in fields like renewable energy, sustainable farming, and biotech. The idea would be to offer tax credits and other incentives to create a more entrepreneurial culture in the Northwest, especially in rural areas.

9. What government should and shouldn’t do. Investor and entrepreneur Martin Tobias of Seattle-based Kashless said, “Startups and investors can’t make a 10-year bet when you have a two-year tax credit.” Those conditions freeze out small companies, especially in costly ventures like energy. So government should create open markets and set minimum market sizes for new technologies, Tobias said. But it shouldn’t pick the technology winners themselves.

8. Northwest tech startups do the Olympics. Tom Guthrie, CEO of Seattle-based Twisted Pair Solutions, said his company has helped numerous agencies on the Olympic Peninsula inter-operate their radios—a key problem in disaster response and other scenarios. Twisted Pair, which is backed by Ignition Partners and other investors, is also working on a laser system to deliver broadband signals. Meanwhile, Paul Manson, CEO of Vancouver, BC-based Sea Breeze, talked about his company’s project to build a high-voltage, direct-current undersea cable between Victoria, BC, and Port Angeles, WA. This would be a fast, controllable power transmission component of a smart grid; it should be under construction by mid-2010, he said.

7. The world according to Dell. In a chat with Mark Anderson of Strategic News Service, Michael Dell said he is excited about China and the rest of Asia as fast-growing economies. He anticipates a U.S. recovery from the recession, but says, “I don’t think you’ll see an immediate snap-back.” And he likes South America as an emerging market (Dell does sales of more than $1 billion in Brazil alone). But Europe, not so much—he sees a lot of uncertainty in the workforce there.

6. Get ready for Dell smartphones. “Mobility is absolutely the theme,” Dell said. He was talking about the relative importance of desktop computers, laptops, netbooks, and mobile devices to …Next Page »

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Seattle-based Decho announced today it has formed a strategic partnership with Vodafone, a British mobile network operator, to develop cloud-based data backup services for personal computers. Financial terms of the deal were not released. The new products for European markets will be built using Mozy, the online backup service operated by Decho, which is a subsidiary of Hopkinton, MA-based EMC (NYSE: EMC).

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Seattle-based Big Fish Games announced today it is setting up European headquarters in Cork, Ireland, and expects to create as many as 100 positions there over the next three years. The new office will focus on multilingual customer support, game testing, and product localization. Big Fish is a leading developer and distributor of casual games.

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Today’s news that Bellevue, WA-based software firm Bsquare (NASDAQ: BSQR) is buying Minneapolis, MN-based TestQuest for $2.2 million has sparked some lively discussion. Bsquare founder and former CEO Bill Baxter, who left the company in 2004, wrote in to say “the investment is not a huge thing for the company” and that “they might benefit marginally,” as long as “they can contain the costs.”

Brian Crowley, Bsquare’s president and chief executive since 2003, has a different take, and called me to make sure he got his point across. “I’m really pretty excited about the deal,” he says.

Some quick background: Bsquare’s strategy since the 1990s was to grow its software services and products together, says Crowley. It peaked with $63 million in revenue in 2001, but that declined to $37 million the following year. “My mandate from the board was ‘Hey, let’s turn this thing around,’” Crowley says. “Let’s do what we do best, which is services, and offer our own products along with it. That’s been our mission for five years since I’ve been CEO.” Last year, Bsquare generated just under $60 million in revenue, with $2.8 million in net income. Through the first nine months of this year, it has reported $48.6 million in revenue and $2.6 million in net income.

Bsquare’s broad strategic goal, as Crowley outlines it, is to bring its products and services to bear on smart devices and help businesses take products to market faster with better quality. “The issue is the increasing complexity of these devices,” he says, meaning getting software to work across different platforms and operating systems, for instance. “We’ve been growing our services practices.”

So what TestQuest brings to the table is “a full, automated test framework,” says Crowley. “You can connect to any kind of device using any kind of operating system. You can verify that the experience the user is having is what you intended. It’s a great fit for Bsquare.”

More specifically, he points to three reasons why the acquisition is a big deal for his company:

1. It could potentially double product sales. Most of Bsquare’s revenues come from the resell of third-party software, Crowley says. Its smallest revenue line is products. Last year it sold about $4.2 million of products. TestQuest also did $4.2 million in sales of its own products, which could be a significant addition to Bsquare’s top-line sales, and bottom line profit.

2. Geographic expansion. “We’re heavily focused in North America,” says Crowley, adding that it’s where 95 percent of Bsquare’s current business is. (Bsquare also sells in Taiwan and Japan.) But TestQuest has “really good, established people and relationships” with customers in China, Korea, Japan, and Europe, he says.

3. Big new customers. “We’ve been super-strong at selling services to OEMs [original equipment manufacturers]. But TestQuest sells to wireless carriers,” Crowley says, including Verizon and Virgin Mobile. Other prominent customers are the U.S. Postal Service and FedEx (for testing field automation applications on devices).

Crowley says the acquisition brings Bsquare’s total workforce to just under 300 people (22 TestQuest workers are joining). “Combining our own capability with TestQuest, it’s a really nice solution for enterprises who want to test devices. Strategically, it’s really important.”

And finally, on the issue of the cost of maintaining the Minnesota office, Crowley says, “We’re pretty low overhead. It’s not a big deal having remote offices.”

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Atlas Venture of Waltham, MA, has taken the lead in a €10 million venture round for Inspirational Stores, the Paris-based online marketing firm said today. Inspirational Stores creates and manages e-commerce sites for luxury European consumer brands such as Laduree, Delvaux and Caviar Kaspia. Existing investor OTC Asset Management also participated in the round.

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When corporate R&D rains, it pours. On the heels of Intel Research Seattle’s annual open house, an even bigger tech giant across Lake Washington is stirring up some serious action across the pond. Microsoft announced today it is opening a European Search Technology Center, with three main offices in the Paris, London, and Munich areas. Its goal is “to tap into local expertise and fuel local innovation with job opportunities that will help reinvent the European consumer online and search experience,” according to a Microsoft statement. The center will be headed up by general manager Jordi Ribas, who hails from the Microsoft Connected TV business group.

The European effort is being viewed as another way to compete with Google and other search engines in the battle for Internet advertising revenues, according to the New York Times, which quotes Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer as saying, “Investing in anything at this time can be a tough sell…But when economic times are tough, we have to keep our faith in the promise that technology holds to transform the future.” Ballmer did not say how much Microsoft is investing in the new search center, but did confirm it will employ several hundred workers.

In a statement, Ballmer said, “To compete in a global, innovation-driven economy, we need to draw on the world’s smartest, most creative minds. Increasingly, we are finding the talent we need here in Europe.” Ballmer called the new search center “an important step forward in our long-term strategy to invest in local development of search technology in Europe. We believe search is still in its infancy. Developers at the Search Technology Centre will play a key role in helping us redefine search as they create new search products and services for consumers and advertisers here in Europe and around the world.”

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Boston-based Skyhook Wireless, which makes embedded location-finding software for a range of devices from mobile phones to digital camera memory cards, said today that it has launched sales and operations efforts in Europe. It will make its formal European debut at a Mobile Monday London gathering tonight, and it’s already working with companies like UK-based BuddyPing and Rummble and Dublin, Ireland-based Locle to build its Wi-Fi Positioning System (WPS) and its XPS hybrid positioning system into their software.

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Software developer Aveksa, based in Waltham, MA, announced today that it will open a headquarters for Europe, the Middle East and Africa in London.  Aveksa’s business is “enterprise access governance solutions”–in other words, controlling who has access to what information inside a company.

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The mobile search and advertising specialist JumpTap, based in Cambridge, MA, says it will open new offices in Madrid, Spain, and Stockholm, Sweden. The expansion is in response to the rapidly growing mobile market in the Nordic and Baltic regions and in Spain, says the company, which has partnership with several mobile operators, including the Swedish-Finnish TeliaSonera and Telefónica Spain.

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Boston Scientific of Natick, MA, will start selling a new line of advanced pacemakers in the European Union. The company announced today that the devices have received the CE Mark of approval from European regulators. The pacemakers, which are intended for patients whose hearts beat too slowly, are not yet approved in the United States.

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Conchango, a UK-based consulting firm that specializes in custom implentations of Microsoft enterprise software, will become part of EMC’s European IT consulting practice, the Hopkinton, MA, company announced today. EMC is spending about 42 million pounds sterling or US $84 million on the acquisition.

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