Frank Quattrone, Star Banker of Technology Ventures, Talks Wistfully of the Good Old Days—Before Netscape’s IPO

2/2/10Follow @bvbigelow

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his talk in San Diego, or in interviews published since his return to high finance. He doesn’t seem inclined to consider his own role in contributing to the mania on Wall Street.

So what was Quattrone’s market outlook for 2010? Here are a few highlights:

—Quattrone told the venture capital partners in the audience, “Guys, if you were a stock, I’d short you.” While the mid-1990s were good years for technology IPOs, he said too many venture-backed companies that went public after 1998 have cratered. “Basically every [VC fund] vintage since 1998 has been negative,” Quattrone said. If you’re a limited partner investor, such as a university endowment, that’s invested in a post-1998 venture fund, Quattrone said, “This is not an asset class. This is a train wreck.”

—Because of the dismal record of IPOs after 1998, Quattrone said, there’s a perception that venture-backed companies have to be much bigger and more mature before registering to go public. If a venture-backed company could previously go public with $100 million in annual revenue, Quattrone says now it has to be $150 million to $200 million. Deal size also must be much bigger. “IPOs were done all the time for under $40 million in the ’80s and ’90s,” Quattrone said, “but nobody wants to do that any more.”

—”The whole approach to marketing and allocating IPOs has to change,” Quattrone said. “The mutual funds that are committed to being long-term holders of the stock—the T. Rowe Prices and the Neuberger Berman Guardians who really understand tech—should get more.”

—The IPO market has been closed for so long that hundreds of venture-backed companies are waiting to go public, “so there is an enormous backlog,” and Quattrone said he expects to see a stampede among the less-attractive companies to go public as soon as possible. “The very best are not the ones that rush to get out,” Quattrone said. The logical implication, which Quattrone didn’t say explicitly, is that disappointing debuts in the first wave of new IPOs could end up tainting the market. But then, aren’t the bankers supposed to have some responsibility for that?

Bruce V. Bigelow is the editor of Xconomy San Diego. You can e-mail him at bbigelow@xconomy.com or call (619) 669-8788 Follow @bvbigelow

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  • Robert Kibble

    I was the moderator of the San Diego Venture Group event in which I had the privilege of interviewing Frank Quattrone. Regretfully there were a number of instances in the article penned above that were inaccurate and were quite misleading in the impression given, and I want to correct them:

    • In reference to Morgan Stanley, Frank said the firm’s mantra, when he was there, was to provide great advice to corporations based on what was in their best interest. Then, not singling out Morgan Stanley, which he said remained a great firm, Wall Street in general had strayed far from that mantra as the firms focused more on lending, trading and principal activities.

    • Frank said that in the ‘80s and ‘90s many high quality IPOs were done with a single book runner and a single co-manager, while contrasting that with a few more recent IPOs where there were multiple bookrunners and lead or co-managers.

    • In reference to government regulation, Frank was critical in general of overzealous prosecutors and cited the dismissal of the Ruelhe/Broadcom case and reversal of other cases where there was prosecutorial misconduct or a biased judge, as per his own case (where the appellate panel removed the judge from further proceedings).

    • Frank never was asked about his role during the Internet “bubble” and the comment here is unfair. What he did do was to cite the poor performance of the 1999-2000 IPOs as one reason that led to the structural damage to the IPO market.

    • Frank did not say that he would “short” the venture capital industry if it was a stock. What he did point out is true, namely, that as a generality funds from 1998 and prior had shown very healthy returns, but for every vintage since then the returns had been terrible. Referring to the chart illustrating these historical returns, he commented if the chart were a stock he would short it.

    • Regarding today’s requirements to go IPO, Frank said that in the past companies could go public with $30 – $50 million in revenues but now it requires $100 million to $200 million in revenues.

    • He said that many of the most successful IPOs in the past had done so while raising only $25 – $50 million in capital, but large underwriters are no longer interested in doing deals of that side. However, he said that he thought with concentrated economics for the underwriters, IPOs of say $60 million would absolutely be possible today – he cited Open Table as an example.

    Robert Kibble
    Managing Partner
    Mission Ventures

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