For those complaining about installation costs… keep in mind that these are also areas in which great strides are taking place… more and more, plug and play and do-it-yourself level of ease installation is becoming possible, even as the cost of the panels/strips/skins drop.

At any rate, the prices will stay high as long as adoption is low.

http://valleywag.com/5037593/nuclear-power–youre-soaking-in-it

I track solar PV for residential use every few months, waiting for “grid parity” to be reached in Florida. Right now, with rebates, I can have the privilege of tripling my monthly electricity bill by installing a solar PV system with backup to meet my home electricity needs. The interesting thing about this number is that, even if solar PV panel costs drop to zero, I still cannot meet grid parity, due to the installation costs.

Why don’t you tell us what really motivates you?

Tell us what you are trying to sell.

Read some of Gregory Nemet’s work: http://www.iea.org/textbase/work/2007/learning/Nemet_PV.pdf or socrates.berkeley.edu/~gnemet/Nemet_PV_EP.pdf

Nemet identifies plant size, cell efficiency and Si price as the main drivers of cost reduction from 1980-2001. If past is prelude his breakdown can be used to help project future winners and losers in the PV space. The factory size driver has historically been the most important and this is interesting because since 2001 we’ve seen a trend toward (100 MW+) facilities with Sanyo, Suntech and others planning 1 GW+ sized factories. This trend should continue. During the same time period we’ve seen silicon cell efficiencies climb steadily. The leaders of the pack are currently in 18-20% range and every other earnings report includes a blurb on technology improvements in the area of efficiency. Here too the trend should continue. Silicon of course has been the great spoiler but a return to $40/kg prices seems inevitable with vertical integration and dedicated SGS production coming to dominate. Despite these rather obvious trends, you describe the field as having lowering barriers for entry. I’d say the opposite is true.

Who cares about Miasole anyway? They’ve got 40 MW of production so why use them as an example? Talk about the bigboys – Sharp, Sanyo, Suntech, Q-cells and Firstsolar.

Production has grown from 150 MW/year in 1998 to around 4.5 GW/year in 2008. That’s an amazing development in and of itself that no one saw coming so fast. We’re already about 10 years ahead of the high-side millennial growth projections of the DOE and IEA.

Unfortunately, real-prices during the same period have been relatively flat. Why has the always reliable learning curve for PV seemingly drifted off course? An oversimplified explanation for this deviation is that silicon costs have shot up and Germany has been very generous. We’re finally seeing the correction and contrary to your assessment this should be considered a good thing. The funny thing about your clumsy attempt at bashing PV is that you’re arguing against the idea of PV reaching grid parity but also predicting long period of falling production costs. BAHAHAHA They don’t need to fall all that far before competition with the grid ensues. And I’m not talking about competing with baseload capacity. A completely healthy PV industry can develop based on providing peak load. You don’t need to store anything.

Suntech is the currently the low-cost leader in the silicon realm at $2.00-$2.50. How long will it be before Suntech or somebody else is in the $1.50-$2.00 realm? 2010 seems to be a good guess with $1.00-$1.50 by 2015.

your banter is quite amusing. while you both make salient points, I do have one quibble. it’s small, I know, but I like to sweat the small stuff b/c I think it’s important. Your comparison to Germany is ill-advised.

Germany is a country roughly the size of Montana, at 51 degrees north (below 35 degrees is optimal for solar energy,) and they get between 20 and 60 inches of precipitation a year.

By contrast, the DESERT southwest in the U.S. has 5 states (6 if you count eastern Oregon during the summer) which are ideal for PV. Per NOAA, parts of Arizona get 25 inches of rain per year, but other parts like Yucca get 2 inches [as of 2006]. The worlds’ 2nd hottest recorded temperature was in Death Valley, CA in 1913: 134 degrees. In Germany, they treat 105 as a record… not quite the same.

Yes, Germany has a much more substantial record with solar energy, thus more data from which to draw. But the comparison and the effort to link the German model to future solar efforts in the U.S. is weak.

Another question: have you done any research on how much we’ve spent on oil since the 1930′s?? Refineries, gas stations, transportation, the oil itself, etc. I’d bet it’s a lot more than $21 trillion.

Thanks, Tim

**plink**

Should I look into buying carbon offsets to handle the toxic fumes I give off as a “moron wrapped in a retard covered with a sweet dipshyte sauce”? If so could you do that calculation for me. Thanks

“Remember, PVs CAN NOT replace the grid unless we develop a storage technology that is something like 5xs better than anything we currently know of because there is this thing called night time. Check it out, it starts around 8pm these days.”

Umm yea. Except an interconnect agreement allows solar to be stored in the grid during peak production, when grid demand is highest, and drawn out at night, when current power plants are under utilized. Storage for solar is already here. Check it out sometime, its called the old power grid and it costs residential and commercial PV installations nothing.

As for grid parity, I know how to do the calculation, obviously you don’t.

As to your comment that no solar is a good investment, I’m reminded of a moron wrapped in a retard covered with a sweet dipshyte sauce.

And to the “I don’t know anything about PVs” well sir, this seems to be more about the fact that you know little about what grid parity means. The term grid parity is bandied about mostly by people don’t really understand what it is or people trying to fool investors or politicians.

PVs are already at grid parity, as I noted above, in a few select spots with exorbitant electricity costs during peak power times such as Japan, and PVs will reach parity in progressively more markets eventually if –big if — if oil and other energy commodity prices don’t decline from their historic highs. Remember prices for energy can go down.

Another key issue with grid parity is the difference between peak and baseload power sources. Nukes and coal offer much cheaper baseload power sources and run constantly. Solar is being used today and will be used affordably for the foreseeable future to offset peak load power sources only. And again to say this, you must remove the cost of the redundant grid you have up and running for when solar isn’t working — however the old grid doesn’t need solar for it to work in itself. See the difference.

Remember, PVs CAN NOT replace the grid unless we develop a storage technology that is something like 5xs better than anything we currently know of because there is this thing called night time. Check it out, it starts around 8pm these days. (Note: the sun still could play a role in a “new” energy grid, but that would be possible via solar thermal technologies).

There were complaints that I used Germany’s poor solar intensity (http://www.oksolar.com/images/world_solar_radiation.gif) as a comparison to the US. Well, looking at population centers and the access points to available energy from the sun, the US (think DC to the tip of Maine) looks a lot more like Germany than it does Oman.

The time when PVs can be cost effective versus traditional energies are in small blocks of peak power time in grossly costly energy markets (Japan) or ones with the right climate mix of heat and sun (say, Southern California). And thats peak time. If you ever saw a breakout of what you get charged during peak power, believe me, you would just turn your AC off instead installing PVs.

As to a question I received privately, of do I like any PV technologies as an investor — not really. I am not saying there isn’t money to be made (hype will potentially lead to a few good IPOs, certainly sales will increase very aggressively for some players–likely Chinese ones), but do I see an investment that I can feel comfortable being a company 10 years from now. No. It seems like a crap shoot.

The one firm that holds some fascination for me is 1366 Technologies because it has a lot of potential buckets to draw from. I guess after a few beers I could warm up to that one. I believe money could be made in a newco that rolls up the installation and maintenance of PVs (Geek Squad for clean energy), and certainly financing firms could see nice long term returns. But all and all there are so many better places and better technologies beginning to develop to make the Earth a better and cleaner place and create a more diverse energy infrastructure.

1. Author’s facts re Miasole efficiency are wrong; Miasole had low efficiency problems about a year ago that have since been resolved; Miasole production panels should be approx 10% as PROVEN BY TESTS AT U.S. DOE’S NREL as reported 7/3/08;
http://www.miasole.com/_assets/PDFs/Miasole_gd_07_03_08.pdf

2. Thin film [dual junction cells] produced from soup to nuts PV plants anyone can purchase [full plants produced by AMAT, Oerlikon and others] have production costs of $1-$1.20/watt; with solid profit PV from these plants can be sold/installed at grid parity. AMAT has pre-sold several gw of capacity, their first plants have already come online in RECORD time.

PV cost/watt of thin film has already reached grid parity from FSLR; PV from AMAT & Oerlikon plants, Nanosolar, and others will generate substantially more supply which means prices will stay at or about grid parity.

Electricity prices have not YET passed higher transport fuel and plant fuel costs to consumers; when higher coal/nat gas & transport fuel costs are factored into local power rates, they will in many places rise above costs of thin film PV generated power.

The Author of this article obviously knows next to nothing about the PV business.

Please list the errors to enlighten me and help me again feel safe to be among enlightened society. Also your conspiracy theory that I have an agenda interests me. Please elaborate.